20080327 T+676 KIlling Entry 最重要!

BuySOLF2000@13.04Sell@13.22+360
ShortSTP800@38.71Cover@38.20+408
ShortSTP800@38.50Cover@38.20+240
ShortXCO1000@18.86Cover@18.82+40
ShortRMBS1000@24.36Cover@23.77+590
ShortRMBS1000@23.91Cover@24.44-530
ShortRMBS1000@24.10Cover@24.40-300
ShortRMBS1000@24.01Cover@24.28-270
ShortRMBS1000@24.14Cover@24+140
ShortRMBS1000@24.05Cover@24+50

BuySOLF2000@13.04Sell@13.22+360
SOLF 今日ER, 很好! . 从年初的40跌到15时, 狗屁的分析师最近还把它downgraded, 后跌到9, 就开始上涨, 前天涨20%, 昨天ER前跌9%. 今日盘前ER后开涨至13.20, +13%, pullback在12.50也没敢冲进去. 13 开盘后先跌一下至12.64马上开涨, 后来在过13后抢入, 涨涨跌跌, 涨得很不容易, 后来终于breakup一把至13.69, 把出价单打在14.10, 太贪了! 应打在13.59. 后来看着pullback, 也没有迅速出货, 在12.22出货, 只赚到了零头! Bad trade!

SOLF的 Pump-Pullback-Pump 模式
后来pullback至13后开涨13.20时也没敢冲进去, 错失大赢的良机. SOLF的ER市场反应好(>+10%), 交易量巨大, 早盘开涨后pullback后应会继续上涨, 怎么可能会一直下跌? 技术还是不过关.

ShortSTP800@38.71Cover@38.20+408

ShortSTP800@38.50Cover@38.20+240

STP以大幅涨了3天, 昨天pullback, 今日整个Solar stocks都涨, 开始Overbought了. 早盘涨5%, 涨不动后short了一把, Cover的单子也正好, 是1分钟图的第二跌.

下午看着就乏力了, 在39迟疑没有冲入, 38.5 DIP 冲入38.20 出, 好险! 好在 INDU 在大跌.

ShortXCO1000@18.86Cover@18.82+40

太慢! 早盘的进场机会也没有看到, 可惜了.

ShortRMBS1000@24.36Cover@23.77+590

ShortRMBS1000@23.91Cover@24.44-530

ShortRMBS1000@24.10Cover@24.40-300

ShortRMBS1000@24.01Cover@24.28-270

ShortRMBS1000@24.14Cover@24+140

ShortRMBS1000@24.05Cover@24+50

RMBS 昨日打赢专利官司, 大涨40%. 在3分钟内巨量就把股价打到了高位. 估计庄家会继续拉高远离进场价位后出货. 昨日盘后继续升至27.10, Never buy pumps! 没有追 Pump, 做的对! 今日早盘就很 weak, 昨天的天量没有持续, 反转下跌!

在长时间横盘开跌加入是short@24.36, 在底部开涨后出局, 没有在昨日的support $23,60 出去, Support 呀, 为什么不先出去呢? 还是太贪了!

后来开跌时short@23.91, 晚了一些, 后跌至 $23.60, 又没有出去, stop@24 的单子也撤了, 在最高点24.44时疯狂fear出局! Entry is not a killing, no stop! Bad Bad Bad trade.

接着又有两次 short at DIP buy at TOP. BAD TRADE. Self-control is bad.

16:30 ET
Tech & Financials Weigh on Market
Dow -120.40 at 12302.46, Nasdaq -43.53 at 2280.83, S&P -15.37 at 1325.76
[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices finished Thursday with steep losses in volatile trade. A disappointing report from a tech bellwether and continued concerns over financial companies drove the market lower. The stock market ended the day near its lows, sending it into negative territory for the month.

Oracle (ORCL 19.43, -1.51) reported third quarter non-GAAP earnings rose 23%, which met analysts' expectations. However, its stock got clipped 7.2% after the company reported revenue that was just short of estimates, and said on its conference call that customers were a little more cautious at the end of its quarter.

Disappointment over Oracle's view on customer behavior weighed on the tech sector (-2.4%), which finished the day as the main laggard. Google (GOOG 444.08, -14.11) also got hit on reports that its most recent "pay per click" number was weak. Also fueling selling interests was news Lehman Brothers cut its price target to $580 on shares of Google.

Following the completion of the Fed's first Term Securities Lending Facility auction, the Fed said it will be lending $75 billion for 28 days. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 1.15--which is the volume of bids divided by the total of funds available at auction. The stop-out rate--the lowest rate the Fed accepted--was 0.33%. The auctions stand to improve liquidity by lending financial firms highly liquid Treasury securities in return for less liquid assets as collateral.

The stock market’s initial response was positive to the TSLF auction results, as the low stop-out rate might indicate that financial firms are not desperate for capital. Sentiment soon soured as the market fell to its session lows.

Financials had a volatile day of trading, trading up as much as 0.9%, and ending the day at its lows with a loss of 2.0%. The sector was a laggard for most of the session due to negative rumors regarding Lehman Brothers (LEH 38.71, -3.78) and a number of earnings estimate cuts.

Oppenheimer shaved its earnings estimates on Merrill Lynch (MER 41.90, -2.52) and UBS (UBS 29.13, -0.03). Lehman Brothers cut its estimates on several banks. Some of the bigger names on the estmate chopping block included Citigroup (C 21.79, -0.26), Bank of America (BAC 38.64, -1.20) and Wells Fargo (WFC 30.26, -0.55).

Interestingly, there was not a Treasury market flight-to-quality as stocks fell. However, defensive oriented sectors utilities (+0.6%), health care (-0.1%) and consumer staples (-0.2%) outperformed on a relative basis.

Economic data were better than expected, but it was not enough to stave off selling pressure. New unemployment claims for the week ended March 22 fell to 366,000 from 375,000. This was slightly better than the 371,000 claims economists expected.

Separately, final fourth quarter GDP was left unchanged at 0.6%. However, consumption was revised higher to 2.3% from 1.9%, and the price deflator was revised downward to 2.4% from 2.7% In other words, the numbers showed better than expected spending, and lower than expected inflation.

In commodity trading, crude oil extended Wednesday’s steep gains. The commodity ending the day up 1.2% to $107.21 per barrel on news an attack in Iraq caused a pipeline explosion. As a whole, the CRB Commodity Index advanced 0.7%.
..Nasdaq 100 -2.2%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -1.2%. ..Russell 2000 -1.4%.

20080324 T+769 挣到钱就好!

ShortLEH600@47.74Cover@47.70+24
ShortLEH600@46.71Cover@46.20+306
ShortV200@62Cover@61.98+4
ShortMS300@50.30Cover@48.72+474

Background:

1. 上个交易日Investment Banks 和大盘都大涨. LEH, MS +14%, 上周五S&P分析师negative on LEH, GS and MS. 今日LEH was downgraded.
2. V 两天前IPO大涨.

Hypothesis:

1. LEH, MS, GS should pullback today. 开盘可能就会大跌.
2. V有可能继续大涨.

Results:

1. 今日大盘高开大涨, 延续了前一日的走势. 做short不是很容易. 但也不太适合买进.
2. 盘前大盘走高, LEH低开, 开盘后迅速拉升又急速回落, Jaguar 仓促加入ShortLEH600@47.7, 急跌至46.56, 盈利$600, 没有出货, LEH又被急拉至 48.52, 反亏$492! 又急跌至46.85, 盈利 $510, 又没有出去, 设STOP at 47.7, 后被Stop out. 后去看别的股票, LEH 升至48后快速回落, Jaguar发现后在第二跌时进场 ShortLEH600@46.7. SHORT AT DIP! BAD BAD BAD. LEH止跌回升至47.97, 亏损最高达 730!!! 下午大盘继续冲高, 后劲乏力, GS和MS反转下跌, LEH 也回落, CoverLEH600@46.20+306.
3. MS 随大盘走高, 11:00am 即开始Pullback, 中午横盘, 下午上涨乏力开跌. Jaguar冲入 ShortMS300@50.3, CoverMS@48.72+474.
4. V盘前被拉高, 开盘高开低走, 后pullup, 又急速回落, 没有上升的人气, Jaguar 在下冲62时加入, ShortV200@62, V没冲破62, pullup至62.79, 后破62, 急跌至61.05, 盈利 $195, 没有行动, 后pullup quickly至62.10, Jaguar 守不住, CoverV200@61.98+4. 后V跌至59!

Improvements:

1. 急跌会急涨. LEH急跌后应急速出货保住盈利!
2. LEH被stop out后应继续观察, 应 LEH下跌的方向已定, 应在48时再开始short.
3. 今日后来 LEH Short at dip 造成被动局面.
4. V short 的太晚, 比较被动.
5. MS 是唯一成功的操作. 如果在上午高点进场将好得多.

Tomorrow's Preys:

Short LEH, MS, GS.

Market Comments:

16:25 ET
Blocked AdStrong Gains on Housing Data
Dow +187.32 at 12548.64, Nasdaq +68.64 at 2326.75, S&P +20.37 at 1349.88
[BRIEFING.COM] On Monday, the major indices kicked off the week on a high note with the S&P 500 advancing 1.5% and the Nasdaq posting a 3.0% gain. Lifting stocks was a better than expected housing report, a move to increase liquidity in mortgage backed securities (MBS), and an increased offer for Bear Stearns (BSC 11.25, +5.29).

The stock market saw the bulk of this session’s gains after the February existing home sales report showed that sales rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. Economists expected sales to fall to 4.85 million from the prior reading of 4.89 million.

Although existing home sales remain weak, the report provided some hope as it marked the first monthly rise in one year. In addition, inventories fell to 9.6 months, which is the lowest level since August. Median home prices are down 8% compared to last year, and are down 15% from the peak in July 2006.

The report gave the market a broad-based lift, with notable strength seen in the homebuilding (+6.5%) and real estate management & development (+13.5%) groups.

On a related note, the Federal Housing Finance Board authorized Federal Home Loan Banks to increase their purchases of agency mortgage backed securities. The expanded authority--which could provide more than $100 billion in additional liquidity to mortgage-backed securities--is limited to Freddie Mac (FRE 30.61, -1.97) and Fannie Mae (FNM 31.16, -3.14) securities

Shortly after the opening bell JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.55, +0.58) confirmed reports that it is going to increase its offer for the Bear Stearns. Last week, in order to avoid bankruptcy, Bear’s board accepted a $2 per share offer from JPMorgan. The extremely low offer sparked outrage from Bear’s shareholders, which still have to approve the takeover. This spurred JPMorgan’s action this morning to revise its offer. Each share of Bear would now receive 0.21753 shares of JPMorgan, which equates to roughly $10.

Financials gained as much as 3.4% on the news, but slipped in late afternoon trading to finish with a modest 0.7% gain.

Nine of the ten sectors closed the day with a gain. Materials posted the largest advance of 3.2% after agriculture company Monsanto (MON 104.26, +7.13) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Consumer discretionary (+3.1%) also posted a hefty gain, partially due to better than expected earnings reports from Walgreen (WAG 38.61, +1.83) and Tiffany & Co (TIF 42.76, +4.16).

The Nasdaq outperformed thanks to leadership from some recently beaten large-cap tech names. Apple (AAPL 139.53, +6.26), Research In Motion (RIMM 11.83, +6.89) and Google (GOOG 460.56, 27.01) gave the composite a nice boost.

Defensive investments underperformed. Treasuries took a beating, with the 10-year note giving up 55 ticks. Meanwhile, utilities (-0.3%) was the sole sector in the red, and healthcare (+0.6%) underperformed on a relative basis.

..Nasdaq 100 3.6%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +2.3%. ..Russell 2000 +2.9%.

Take a rest after a huge down day.

Background:
Yesterday's huge pullback makes it hard to decide the direction of the market today. It may go sideway, down or even up.

Hypothesis:

Hard to decide the direction to trade.

Results:

Jaguar took a rest and just watched the market.

The Market went up sharply all the day with one trend.

Improvements:

Take a rest is a good decision! However, when the market goes up steadly in the noon and breakup in the aftenoon, Jaguar should take a chance to follow the market. Both MS and LEH have +14% gains.

Next Monday's Preys:

Market Comments:

16:20 ET
Financials Lead Market Sharply Higher

Dow +261.66 at 12361.32, Nasdaq +48.15 at 2258.11, S&P +31.09 at 1329.51

[BRIEFING.COM] On Thursday, the stock market closed the shortened week on a high note. The major indices surged more than 2% in heavy trading, and finished near their best levels of the session. Financials led the way higher, thanks to a pair of upgrades and news that the Fed is expanding its previously announced plan to increase liquidity.

The financial sector (+6.9%) was the driving force behind this session’s strength. It got off to a strong start after Fannie Mae (FNM 34.30, +3.59) and Freddie Mac (FRE 32.58, +2.68) were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Financials, and the market, got a further boost after the New York Fed announced modifications to its new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSFL). The TSFL auctions will now allow schedule 2 collateral, instead of the schedule 1 collateral previously proposed. Schedule 2 collateral will now include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and AAA rated commercial mortgage-backed securities

In other words, the Fed will be lending banks highly liquid Treasury securities in exchange for less liquid assets. Banks will now be able to use a wider range of collateral than previously announced. The first auction will take place on March 27 with an offering size of $75 billion for a term of 28 days. Up to $200 billion in loans have been authorized. This is a positive development as it temporarily relieves holders of the difficult to trade securities.

The thrifts & mortgages group (+10.3%) was a standout for the third day in a row. The group has spiked 53% from its low on Monday. Investment banks & brokerages was also a leader with a 11.2% gain.

The March Philadelphia Fed, a regional manufacturing survey, also gave stocks a boost. The survey came in at -17.4, which is higher than the previous reading of -24.0. Economists expected a reading of -18.0. The stock market spiked on the release even though the number was only slightly better than expected. Since the reading is below zero, it reflects contraction in manufacturing in the Philadelphia region. The survey has shown contraction for the last four months.

Other economic data were bearish, although the market shrugged off the news. Jobless claims for the week ended March 15 rose to 378,000 from the prior reading of 356,000. Economists expected 360,000 claims.

In a separate report, February leading indicators fell 0.3%, which was in-line with expectations. The prior reading, however, was revised lower to -0.4% from -0.1%.

Also of note, General Electric (GE 37.49, +1.90) posted a healthy 5.3% gain after being upgraded to Buy from Sell at Merrill Lynch.

Nine of the ten sectors trended higher. Consumer discretionary (+3.2%) was the second best performing group behind financials, thanks to a 4.9% surge in retailers. Materials (-0.5%) was the only sector to finish in the red, as the Commodity Index (-1.7%) has slid four of the last five days.

The strengthening dollar (+0.84%) weighed on commodities, with oil sliding -1.0% to $101.54 per barrel, and gold giving up 3.5% to $912.22 per ounce. Gold is down 11.8% from its all-time non inflation adjusted high of $1033.90 per ounce that was reached on Monday.

For the week the S&P advanced 3.2%, the Dow gained 2.2% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.1%. The CRB Commodity Index slipped 8.3%, while the dollar gained 1.5%.

The stock and bond markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. Trading will resume on Monday.

..Nasdaq 100 +2.1%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +2.4%. ..Russell 2000 +2.6%.

20080319 T+1035 第一次狩猎成功 MS

ShortMS500@25.70 CoverMS500@43.64+$1035

Background:

- Last week, BSC's problem made the investement banks dived, BSC dropped 47% from $57 to $30.

- Monday, BSC was bought by JPM for $2 (0.0547 JPM shares). BSC opened at $3.17 and closed at $4.18, lost 86%. (BSC today traded at $5.5% today, I don't know why it didn't trade in the price range with JPM, will be $2+) All the banks dropped with BSC but closed higher than open.

- Yesterday, the INDU jumped 400 with better than expected ER from GS and LEH. GS +14%, LEH +33%, BSC +41%, MS jumped with all the investment banks for 14%+. Today, MS reported better than expected ER too (Expected: 1.03, actual: 1.45). MS gapped up +5.6% at $45.26 and pumped to $47.07 in the morning.

Hypothesis:

The Market is due for a pullback with yesterday's 400+ point jump. The market will go higher with yesterday's momentum and may pullback after reach the exhausted top. The banks are due for a pullback with the market for their huge last 2 days gains.

Results:

- With yesterday's momentum, the market went higher at open +69 and dropped quickly to negative, -66, 10:35. This is a sign that the INDU is weak. The market then pullup to its exhausted top +38, 11:45 and then the INDU dripped little by little with one direction till close, -293, -2.36%! There is a pullup at 14:40. Huge drop.

- The other banks (GS, MER, LEH, BSC) didn't go up much with MS and became red soon with the market. Only MS kept green +6%. Jaguar shortMS500@45.7 , 12:15 after a sign of weak (drop), it then with a fast pullup to 46 and dripped till the close. Yesterday's high is 43.22. Jaguar put a cover order at 42.7 which is higher than yesterday's dow's line (42.15). MS reached 43.07 and began to pullup. Jaguar CoverMS500@43.64+$1035 at the 1st pullup jump's pullback. The pullup go higher till 44.8, which is very big! Jaguar took a rest for the rest of the day after this hunting.

Improvements:

Should short MS after the pullup at 44.8 till the close 43.4. It is anothe $700. MS is very clear for a 2-3 days pullback. Today is the 1st day. It is safe to short again after the pullup.

Tomorrow's Preys:

Market Comments:

16:20 ET
Commodity Sell-Off Sinks Stocks

Dow -293.00 at 12099.66, Nasdaq -58.30 at 2209.96, S&P -32.32 at 1298.42

[BRIEFING.COM] Participants looking for a follow-through move to Tuesday's huge advance were sorely disappointed by the end of Wednesday's trading.
The move didn't happen - or at least it didn't happen much beyond an early uptick that was driven by Morgan Stanley's (MS 43.45, +0.59) better than expected earnings report and word from The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight that it was relaxing its excess capital restrictions on Fannie Mae (FNM 30.71, +2.49) and Freddie Mac (FRE 29.90, +3.88) to foster increased liquidity in the U.S. mortgage market.
The opening gains quickly evaporated following a broad-based sell-off in the commodity arena that hit gold hard. The yellow metal plunged $69.00, or 6.5%, to $939 per ounce. Oil was another notable loser, falling 4.5% to $104.48 per barrel, after a government report showed a build in stockpiles. Altogether the CRB Index declined 4.1%.
Heavy selling of the commodities evoked fears that it was more than simple profit taking after some big gains. Rather, the drop in prices, combined with a rush of buying interest in the Treasury market that was concentrated on the 3-month Treasury bill, engendered a sense of angst that it might be some forced selling by hedge funds looking to de-leverage or needing to meet margin calls; hence, the flight-to-quality into Treasuries.
Strength in the dollar amid the weakness in stocks and commodities supported the de-leveraging notion. In any event, it was remarkable that the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill dropped 27 basis points to 0.61%, marking its lowest yield in nearly 50 years.
A Bloomberg.com report that Merrill Lynch (MER 41.45, -5.18) is suing XL Capital Assurance over default protection on $3 billion of collateralized debt obligations added to the angst that led to a negative finish for all ten economic sectors. In fact, the major indices closed at their worst levels of the session.
The basic materials sector, which dropped 6.3%, led the list of losers, followed by energy, down 5.4%, and technology, down 2.8%. As one might expect, the defensive-oriented health care and consumer staples sectors fared the best on a relative basis with declines of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively

...Nasdaq 100 -2.6%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -2.5%. ..Russell 2000 -2.6%.

Yesterday's Market Comments:

16:30 ET
Brokers, Fed Drive Market Rally
Dow +420.41 at 12392.66, Nasdaq +91.25 at 2268.26, S&P +54.14 at 1330.74
[BRIEFING.COM] What a difference a day makes.
On Monday the market was rattled by the news that Bear Stearns (BSC 5.91, +1.10) agreed to be acquired for $2 per share and the fear that other financial firms might face similar solvency issues that precipitated that fire sale.
On Tuesday those fears were cast aside following better than expected earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS 175.59, +24.57) and Lehman Bros. (LEH 46.49, +14.74) that produced reassurances from both firms regarding their liquidity position. The ensuing response led to a massive rally in the financial sector, which gained 8.5% on the day - its largest gain since March 2000 - and led all sectors in the broader market.
The broad-based nature of Tuesday's rally led to gains for all ten economic sectors, the lowest of which was a 1.8% jump in the defensive-oriented utilities sector. That is respectable in its own right, but it qualified as an underperformance in Tuesday's market where the S&P 500 advanced 4.2% - its biggest one-day percentage move since October 2002.
Aside from the aforementioned earnings reports, the FOMC decision served as the other major trading catalyst. The committee ultimately approved a 75 basis point cut in both the fed funds rate and the discount rate to 2.25% and 2.50%, respectively. It should be noted, however, that the vote on the fed funds rate carried dissents from Dallas Fed President Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who were in favor of less aggressive action.
The major indices backpedalled some in the wake of the decision as many participants were expecting a cut of 100 basis points. The disappointment soon faded, though, and stocks were quick to regain their winning form.
Notably, the FOMC acknowledged that uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased, yet it still holds the belief that inflation will moderate in coming quarters. In turn, it left the door open for more rate cuts, saying downside risks to growth remain and that it will act in a timely manner as needed to promote economic growth and price stability.
The bulk of today's gains, however, were achieved ahead of the FOMC decision. To wit, the Dow was up approximately 300 points just minutes ahead of the FOMC decision at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Joining the financial shares in a leadership position were the homebuilding stocks. They got a lift from a better than expected Housing Starts report for February and a measure of hope that conditions may be starting to ripen for improved housing demand with the Fed's actions and reports that the regulator for Fannie Mae (FNM 28.22, +6.01) and Freddie Mac (FRE 26.02, +5.40) may soon ease its excess capital requirement for the government sponsored enterprises in a bid to improve liquidity in the secondary mortgage market.
The Producer Price Index was the other economic release today. It carried mixed news with total PPI up 0.3% (consensus +0.4%) and core-PPI, which excludes food and energy, up 0.5% (consensus +0.2%). The market managed to look past the core-PPI number, however, since it followed a tamer reading on core inflation in the consumer price index.
Separately, the equity market rally sucked some life out of the Treasury market as the 10-year note fell more than a point, driving its yield up to 3.46%. The commodity-driven CRB Index jumped 1.9% while the dollar index increased 0.2% in response to the smaller than expected interest rate cut

...Nasdaq 100 +4.4%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +4.0%. ..Russell 2000 +4.8%.

TraderJaguar was born today.

美洲豹虎交易师 (TraderJaguar) 今日诞生.
他要成为史上一位成功的交易师典范.
他要以美洲豹虎的本能在市场上搏杀, 战胜人类的贪婪和恐惧的弱点.