ShortLEH600@47.74Cover@47.70+24
ShortLEH600@46.71Cover@46.20+306
ShortV200@62Cover@61.98+4
ShortMS300@50.30Cover@48.72+474
Background:
1. 上个交易日Investment Banks 和大盘都大涨. LEH, MS +14%, 上周五S&P分析师negative on LEH, GS and MS. 今日LEH was downgraded.
2. V 两天前IPO大涨.
Hypothesis:
1. LEH, MS, GS should pullback today. 开盘可能就会大跌.
2. V有可能继续大涨.
Results:
1. 今日大盘高开大涨, 延续了前一日的走势. 做short不是很容易. 但也不太适合买进.
2. 盘前大盘走高, LEH低开, 开盘后迅速拉升又急速回落, Jaguar 仓促加入ShortLEH600@47.7, 急跌至46.56, 盈利$600, 没有出货, LEH又被急拉至 48.52, 反亏$492! 又急跌至46.85, 盈利 $510, 又没有出去, 设STOP at 47.7, 后被Stop out. 后去看别的股票, LEH 升至48后快速回落, Jaguar发现后在第二跌时进场 ShortLEH600@46.7. SHORT AT DIP! BAD BAD BAD. LEH止跌回升至47.97, 亏损最高达 730!!! 下午大盘继续冲高, 后劲乏力, GS和MS反转下跌, LEH 也回落, CoverLEH600@46.20+306.
3. MS 随大盘走高, 11:00am 即开始Pullback, 中午横盘, 下午上涨乏力开跌. Jaguar冲入 ShortMS300@50.3, CoverMS@48.72+474.
4. V盘前被拉高, 开盘高开低走, 后pullup, 又急速回落, 没有上升的人气, Jaguar 在下冲62时加入, ShortV200@62, V没冲破62, pullup至62.79, 后破62, 急跌至61.05, 盈利 $195, 没有行动, 后pullup quickly至62.10, Jaguar 守不住, CoverV200@61.98+4. 后V跌至59!
Improvements:
1. 急跌会急涨. LEH急跌后应急速出货保住盈利!
2. LEH被stop out后应继续观察, 应 LEH下跌的方向已定, 应在48时再开始short.
3. 今日后来 LEH Short at dip 造成被动局面.
4. V short 的太晚, 比较被动.
5. MS 是唯一成功的操作. 如果在上午高点进场将好得多.
Tomorrow's Preys:
Short LEH, MS, GS.
Market Comments:
16:25 ET
Blocked AdStrong Gains on Housing Data
Dow +187.32 at 12548.64, Nasdaq +68.64 at 2326.75, S&P +20.37 at 1349.88
[BRIEFING.COM] On Monday, the major indices kicked off the week on a high note with the S&P 500 advancing 1.5% and the Nasdaq posting a 3.0% gain. Lifting stocks was a better than expected housing report, a move to increase liquidity in mortgage backed securities (MBS), and an increased offer for Bear Stearns (BSC 11.25, +5.29).
The stock market saw the bulk of this session’s gains after the February existing home sales report showed that sales rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. Economists expected sales to fall to 4.85 million from the prior reading of 4.89 million.
Although existing home sales remain weak, the report provided some hope as it marked the first monthly rise in one year. In addition, inventories fell to 9.6 months, which is the lowest level since August. Median home prices are down 8% compared to last year, and are down 15% from the peak in July 2006.
The report gave the market a broad-based lift, with notable strength seen in the homebuilding (+6.5%) and real estate management & development (+13.5%) groups.
On a related note, the Federal Housing Finance Board authorized Federal Home Loan Banks to increase their purchases of agency mortgage backed securities. The expanded authority--which could provide more than $100 billion in additional liquidity to mortgage-backed securities--is limited to Freddie Mac (FRE 30.61, -1.97) and Fannie Mae (FNM 31.16, -3.14) securities
Shortly after the opening bell JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.55, +0.58) confirmed reports that it is going to increase its offer for the Bear Stearns. Last week, in order to avoid bankruptcy, Bear’s board accepted a $2 per share offer from JPMorgan. The extremely low offer sparked outrage from Bear’s shareholders, which still have to approve the takeover. This spurred JPMorgan’s action this morning to revise its offer. Each share of Bear would now receive 0.21753 shares of JPMorgan, which equates to roughly $10.
Financials gained as much as 3.4% on the news, but slipped in late afternoon trading to finish with a modest 0.7% gain.
Nine of the ten sectors closed the day with a gain. Materials posted the largest advance of 3.2% after agriculture company Monsanto (MON 104.26, +7.13) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
Consumer discretionary (+3.1%) also posted a hefty gain, partially due to better than expected earnings reports from Walgreen (WAG 38.61, +1.83) and Tiffany & Co (TIF 42.76, +4.16).
The Nasdaq outperformed thanks to leadership from some recently beaten large-cap tech names. Apple (AAPL 139.53, +6.26), Research In Motion (RIMM 11.83, +6.89) and Google (GOOG 460.56, 27.01) gave the composite a nice boost.
Defensive investments underperformed. Treasuries took a beating, with the 10-year note giving up 55 ticks. Meanwhile, utilities (-0.3%) was the sole sector in the red, and healthcare (+0.6%) underperformed on a relative basis.
..Nasdaq 100 3.6%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +2.3%. ..Russell 2000 +2.9%.
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